As the election further approaches, invariably, the news will at some point begin discussing how the Hispanic population will play a large role in determining who the next country’s President will be. Seemingly, this has been drawing headlines for at least the past three national elections, but was moreso noticeable in the 2012 election when, for the first time ever, Latinos made up 10% of the electorate and voted in favor of the incumbent nominee of Obama over the challenger, Mitt Romney, by a percentage of 71% to 27%.[1]
While we’ve already referenced that the increases in Hispanic population have shifted from immigration driven to those born within the country, with the continued Hispanic population growth, we can expect to hear more about how the Hispanic vote will hold a large influence over who is elected to the greatest office in the United States in many future elections. As a result, understanding, where these votes are coming from will only further help determine the changes the country is undergoing, and furthermore, how to best determine the best allocation of the marketing budget for the Hispanic market.
Growth Cooled in Major Hispanic States
In terms of ranking for overall Hispanic population, there were not any changes regarding the placement of California, Texas, and Florida, which are the three states with the highest Latino population in the United States. However, what is interesting to note is that the population share between the states and the rest of the nation is down by 3% since 2000.[2]
Looking at Los Angeles, which has been the home for more Hispanics than any other metropolitan area in the nation, we can also see that the possibilities for improving the lives of the city’s residents have diminished, in part due to lack of employment opportunities as thousands of jobs have been lost, including in the construction sector, which has been a traditional source of employment. [3] Furthermore, with the high cost of housing, much of the population has been flocking elsewhere, albeit within the state in areas like Riverside and San Bernardino, which are still nearby and saw a 74% increase in population from 2000-2013 as opposed to a 15% increase within Los Angeles. [3]
However, while the majority of Hispanic residents in California’s largest metropolitan area may have seemingly settled slightly outside the county lines due to job loss and the cost of housing, we’re also seeing that in Florida and Texas, more jobs are being added and the cost of living is lower. [3] Given this information, it would seem that it would imply that we could expect to see that overall, the percentage of the Hispanic population would be increasing here on par with the national average, and yet that isn’t the case.
So Where is the Hispanic Market Growing?
As we’ve seen, there still a large amounts of Hispanics living in the major areas where they have already been associated with living, but now, more Latinos are moving into counties and municipalities than before. [4] Looking at Kansas, there has been a continuous growth of Hispanics over the past 25 years in counties such as Wyandotte, which contains the Kansas side of Kansas City, and Johnson County, which does not have a major metropolitan area, but is near Wyandotte, and it’s largest town, Overland Park, has a similar population to that of Kansas City, KS. Also, similarly, both have nearly the same total Hispanic population, but where they differ lies in where the Hispanics have settled. In the case of Wyandotte County, 42,193 Hispanics reside in the western side of the metropolitan area, making up about 28.5% of the city’s total population. [5] Contrarily, while Overland Park has a population of 149,080, the Hispanic population is only around 5,620 people[6], or, roughly, 3.8%, meaning that the rest of the population is spread out around smaller townships such as Olathe, Lenexa, and more.
Similar growth has also been seen in New Jersey, as the Hispanic population increased by 100,000 while the non-Hispanic population remained stagnant. More importantly, however, is where they are moving as the counties closest to New York City are seeing the largest growth in their Hispanic populations [4], which is likely due to the increasing cost of living in many areas of New York City, as many of the Burroughs started seeing demographic shifts that signified likely decreases in the percentage of their Hispanic population as early as 1997. [7] This information implies that the jobs are likely still in the city; however, the cost of living was so great and potential for future homeownership so low that they likely moved somewhere close enough that they could get to work, but live in a place that they could afford.
Not all Municipalities and Counties Show Increased Hispanic Populations
While we’ve already been able to gain some understanding of where the Hispanic population is increasing, it’s important to note that not all municipalities and counties that do not include metropolitan areas are showing increases in their Hispanic populations. Specifically, areas like Santa Cruz County in Arizona, which lies right on the US/Mexican border showed a decrease in the amount of Latinos living there, as well as Hardee County, FL, and Hale County, TX. So, while municipalities and counties may be the areas that are most likely to continue seeing the increased Hispanic population growth in the future, that does not mean that it will be the same for all areas with similar populations, even those within states where the Hispanic population total and density are higher than national averages.
[2] https://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2015/06/25/u-s-hispanic-population-growth-surge-cools/
[3] https://www.forbes.com/sites/joelkotkin/2015/01/30/the-u-s-cities-where-hispanics-are-doing-the-best-economically/
[4] https://latino.foxnews.com/latino/politics/2015/06/25/new-census-data-shows-latinos-driving-shift-in-us-population-demographic/
[5] https://www.city-data.com/city/Kansas-City-Kansas.html
[6] https://overlandpark.areaconnect.com/statistics.htm
[7] https://www.dnainfo.com/new-york/20110328/manhattan/manhattans-hispanic-population-shrinks-despite-growth-city-census-shows
